(Image source from: Livemint.com)
The upcoming US presidential election is closely watched around the world, especially since the two main candidates have very different approaches to governing the country. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are the frontrunners, and the election's outcome is expected to have significant impacts on many nations, including India. While some believe the US-India relationship will remain largely unaffected, certain sectors could experience changes depending on the winner. Regarding defense, the US is unlikely to compromise, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region where China's influence has been growing. India's role as a deterrent is valued by the US, and this is expected to continue regardless of who occupies the White House, as it has for the past decade.
The former president plans to maintain the existing defense partnership and improve collaboration between nations, as suggested by a US think tank expert. Similarly, the current vice president is expected to prioritize regional peace with the help of involved countries, especially given the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea. However, the two candidates have different views on trade. The former president is committed to his "America First" agenda, which involves bolstering domestic industries and reducing reliance on the global supply chain. This was evident during his last term when he imposed high tariffs on imports and removed the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) aimed at facilitating trade with developing countries. He has also publicly expressed his intentions to impose additional tariffs on imports, including a 10% tariff on general imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China.
The president urged other countries to reimburse the United States for its contributions, stating that the tariff would be significant. He mentioned that this proposed tariff would generate substantial revenue, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Tariffs imposed during Trump's presidency have been extended by the Biden administration, but it is unclear whether Harris plans to take similar action. During the debate, he called Trump's proposed tariff plan a "sales tax" on Americans. Unlike Trump, Harris has no intention of using tariffs as a weapon to reduce dependence on global markets. Instead, he focused on taxing America's wealthiest and giving tax breaks to the middle class. This can be an interesting element. Social issues in the region will be a priority for Harris, and he will pay particular attention to his Native American heritage. However, as the former president's last term in office demonstrated, this is not necessarily the case with the Trump administration.
A good example is the Bangladesh crisis. The previous government was overthrown, a new government took power and the region descended into chaos. Since it is a neighboring country with a common border with India and the previous government was a good partner for India, the situation is not very ideal, especially with China lurking and encroaching on Indian soil. The Biden administration has also not said much about the Bangladesh crisis, a worrying trend that India will be reluctant to continue when Harris takes office.
