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India's nominal GDP is expected to nearly double from $3.6 trillion in 2023-24 to over $7 trillion in 2030-31, according to SandP Global Market Intelligence forecasts. This would make India the world's third-largest economy, increasing its share of global GDP from 3.6 percent to 4.5 percent and raising its per capita income to upper-middle income status, SandP reports. According to SandP Global, India will also move to a middle-income level by 2030-31 if the expected annual growth rate of 6.7 percent is achieved. This follows impressive GDP growth of 8.2% in FY24, well above the government's previous forecast of 7.3%. Overall, we expect India's real GDP growth to be 6.8% in the current financial year, slowing from the high levels of 2023-24. Continuing structural reforms aimed at strengthening trade agreements and improving the logistics sector will support private sector investment and make growth less dependent on public capital spending, Sandpi Global said in a report.
SandP said India is the fastest-growing major economy with growth of 8.2 percent in fiscal 2024, higher than previously expected. Ongoing reforms are necessary to improve trade and logistics, boost private sector investment and reduce dependence on public capital. Given strong growth prospects and strict regulations, we expect equity markets to remain dynamic and competitive. Since India joined the major emerging market indices, foreign capital flows into Indian government bonds have been increasing rapidly and are expected to continue to grow. “Higher food prices in the face of climate change could constrain monetary policy and make investments more expensive,” the report says. Therefore, strengthening policies and infrastructure to mitigate agricultural risks is crucial for the smooth functioning of monetary policy, Sandpi Global said. The fiscal year 2024-25 is off to a good start with goods and services tax (GST) revenue touching a record INR 2.1 trillion per month in April and continuing to rise in May and June, the report said.
